An assignment worth 25% is not much, so I don't think you will fail, even if you get 0% on that assignment, you still have the exam to make up for it (which I assume is worth more).
However, I am worried that if you cannot make it to second year (and not because you don't understand the material, but simply because you're too lazy to hand in an assignment on time, or even relatively close to the due date), I don't see how you're going to make it through all 4 years. I'm only in my third year right now, and for each course, I have approximately 50-80 pgs of reading/week, essays are almost all between 8-15 pgs, and if you don't put in your full effort, it's very hard to get by.
If you end up getting through this year and making it to second, I suggest you take it much more seriously, otherwise, don't waste your time, energy, or money.
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...And will you succeed? Yes! You will, indeed! (98 and 3/4 percent guaranteed.)
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